As Yoweri Museveni delivered the 2026 State of the Nation Address (Sona), highlighting economic growth, infrastructure expansion and government programmes, a key question emerged among many Ugandans: has life improved over the past year?
While the annual address outlined achievements in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, education, health and wealth creation, economists and policy analysts argue that national progress cannot be measured by statistics alone. For many households, the real test is whether incomes have risen, jobs are available, and essential services remain affordable.
Recent data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics illustrates the pressures facing consumers. Using a basket of commonly purchased goods including beef, rice, soap, fuel, vegetables and cooking oil, the average monthly expenditure increased from Shs81,866 in May 2025 to Shs87,474 in May 2026, a difference of Shs5,608. Analysts warn that additional tax measures expected in the 2026/27 financial year could place further strain on household budgets.
Growth Without Household Relief
According to Job Kiija, Uganda’s economic growth has not translated into significant improvements in household welfare.
Although headline inflation stood at 3.2 percent in May 2026, Kiija argues that many families continue to face rising living costs driven by fuel price increases and global economic pressures.
“Despite the government’s celebration of a nominal GDP per capita of $1,278 (Shs4.7 million), real disposable incomes remain stagnant or diminished due to critically high youth unemployment and an under-capitalised informal sector struggling to absorb new workers amid rising daily expenditures,” he said.
Kiija also questioned the effectiveness of flagship government programmes such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Emyooga, arguing that administrative bottlenecks, limited public awareness and cases of mismanagement have reduced their impact.
He further noted that large infrastructure investments, including road construction and the Standard Gauge Railway project, have yet to directly address challenges such as high agricultural input costs, limited market access and unemployment.
Mixed Economic Signals
The latest Consumer Price Index figures reveal continued price increases across several sectors. Education services rose by 4.1 percent over the past year, restaurants and accommodation services increased by 3.3 percent, while insurance and financial services recorded a 12.6 percent rise.
In his address, President Museveni acknowledged that some economic challenges stem from global geopolitical developments, but he also blamed poor performance among certain government officials.
The President said his administration’s guiding principle for the 2026–2031 term would be “no more sleep,” warning that underperforming leaders would not be tolerated.
Museveni also highlighted growth in Uganda’s dairy sector, noting that annual milk production had increased from 200 million litres in 1986 to 5.4 billion litres today. According to the President, the sector now saves the country billions of shillings in imports while generating substantial export earnings.
Stability Versus Living Standards
Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo acknowledged that Uganda’s macroeconomic indicators have improved over the last year.
Real GDP growth increased to 6.4 percent in the 2025/26 financial year, foreign exchange reserves rose to $6.1 billion, and inflation eased compared to the previous year.
“These are genuine signs of stability,” Twinoburyo said.
However, he cautioned that stronger economic performance does not automatically translate into improved household welfare.
“GDP reflects output, not distribution. Inflation falling does not mean life is cheap,” he explained, noting that rising energy, fuel and utility costs continue to affect households.
Twinoburyo pointed to labour market challenges as another major concern. National unemployment stands at 12.2 percent, while youth unemployment is significantly higher at 17.9 percent. He also noted that 87.6 percent of non-agricultural employment remains informal.
According to the economist, development should be measured through household income growth, quality jobs, enterprise survival rates and poverty reduction rather than solely by funds disbursed or infrastructure built.
Poverty and Welfare Challenges Persist
Despite government investments, poverty remains a significant challenge. Data cited by analysts shows that 16.1 percent of Ugandans, approximately seven million people, lived below the national poverty line in 2023/24.
The Multidimensional Poverty Index also found that more than half of the population experiences deprivations related to health care, sanitation, education and access to clean cooking energy.
Twinoburyo argued that Uganda’s biggest challenge is ensuring that economic growth directly improves household welfare.
“The economy can expand while citizens remain trapped in insecure work, low-productivity agriculture, poor sanitation, fragile health protection, and weak schooling outcomes,” he said.
Calls for Accountability and Reform
Kiija argued that the President’s address devoted limited attention to governance concerns such as corruption, human rights issues and political accountability.
He called for stronger oversight of public spending, more aggressive action against corruption and greater investment in essential services such as healthcare and education.
According to Kiija, the government should also establish stronger social protection measures to cushion low-income households from economic shocks and rising living costs.
Experts Urge Focus on Jobs
Paddy Mugambe said that although Uganda’s economy has strengthened, citizens assess progress based on practical realities such as employment, income growth and access to affordable services.
“The average Ugandan is marginally better off than in June 2025, but not dramatically so. Gains have been real but unevenly distributed across regions, sectors, and income groups,” Mugambe said.
He emphasized the need to create jobs through investments in labour-intensive sectors including manufacturing, agro-processing, tourism and digital services.
Similarly, Timothy Chemonges said many Ugandans continue to struggle despite positive economic indicators.
“People judge progress from the pocket,” Chemonges said, pointing to ongoing difficulties with school fees, rent, transport costs, healthcare expenses and limited employment opportunities.
While acknowledging progress in infrastructure and poverty reduction, he argued that government policy should focus more on translating economic growth into tangible improvements in household welfare.
“Ugandans need growth that reduces pressure in the home, puts money in people’s pockets, and improves the services they use every day,” he said.
As Uganda enters a new financial year, economists agree that the central challenge remains ensuring that economic growth is not only reflected in national statistics, but also in the daily lives of ordinary citizens.
