Analysis : Why Bobi Can win Museveni in one blow

The rate at which events are unfolding in Uganda is so high that even the pretentious hypocritical elites seem to have lost count, the events are unfolding so fast as if to quickly close a chapter and begin on a new sheet ; “Enno yandiba term egenda…”

Uganda has changed regimes 8 times, therefore there must be some constant happening to indicate that we are in the evening of the regime or government.

This brings me to the topic under which am writing today’s article.

There has been debate as to whether #HEBobiWine can be president or is even a presidential material.

1. The loud silence of president Museveni propagandist led by Andrew mwenda and NRMSOMA

Where reason ends, force begins yet force is the last line of defense for a reasonable man. But the loud silence of the NRM (Reasonable men) propagandist says a lot about a group in disarray, demoralized and retreating.

This silence says more about the moment of realities and possibilities of where the young man is actually headed to. The kind of force being used on Bobi is either as the last line of defense or to create an escape root for a retreating defeated team. Otherwise what would account for this silent?.

2. The West vs the Rest argument

If Mr. Museveni did anything really bad, its making the three region develop sense of resentment of the people from western Uganda. To date we have people who think all people from western Uganda are in advantaged position, favored above others and taking advantages of the rest. This has concretized and cemented support for a non-Western Bobi wine.

Realizing this we saw an attempt by state operatives trying to state sponsor hate speech on social media between baganda and northerners, thankfully it failed to again. In my opinion this alliance is unprecedented and pointing to something no less than change of government.

3. The geopolitical trends

The recent unfolding in the great lakes and Africa generally is leaving president Museveni politically shabby and a complete odd man out. The peaceful transition of power in DRC, the resignation of Gen. Bashir are isolating the son of Kaguta as the only “Mubutu” acting out of fashion, reason and trend. The young leaders in the region are increasingly becoming queasy with the Kampala establishment.

Even the regional interest can no longer be served by him and there seem to be evidence to that effect. They can’t afford to have unstable Uganda in this volatile region banking on a leader who is leaving on bonus time.

The contest between #HEBobiWine vs Gen. Museveni is a contest between today generation and yesterday’s moon. Naturally the region seem set for the rising star.

4. The Muslim anger against mistreatment

It’s true that Muslims have shouldered highest suffering, persecution and exclusion. They accuse this government and elements in government of a lot of atrocities. Despite all that they have always voted for Mr. Museveni as if to thank him for the very things they continuously complain about. The current feelers now indicate otherwise. The elites in the Muslim community seem to be finding new alliances and naturally seem to be Bobi Wine.

Whereas Museveni still banks on Haji K.k, Gen. Moses Ali, Hajji Moses Kigongo etc, the real people who now speak for the Muslims in Uganda are Basalirwa Asuman, Latif Ssebagala, Semujju Nganda, Muhammad Nsereko among others. So where they stand is very critical in making the next pointer. (Show us the signal)

5. The international community shift.

Mr. Museveni has enjoyed international support and good will more than any African leader. He has hosted 3 popes, 3 US presidents, presidents and leaders of all most powerful government in the world. He has been given largest grants, foreign aid and aid more than any of his predecessors.

He was even forgiven debts to zero. He however started taking these support for granted. What is coming out is that the new breed of African leader has disappointed his former darlings. The way he treats his opponents is embarrassing his friends and clearly our capabilities to guarantee their interest.

6. The proliferation of the media.

The setup of the media sector in Uganda was deliberately to divide and disintegrate this country contrary to the empty rhetoric of unity and patriotism. It’s connected and related to what has been done in all other sectors like schools, health, transport etc. To restrict myself to the media and specifically radios. Whereas before 1986 Uganda had almost one station, this radio station reflected and promoted national character and patriotism.

The whole country would tap from the same source of news and information. Sharing from the same source and yardstick, this made media house to balance coverage and consumption thereby forcing government to not only open up to the who country but even the distribution of the national cake was determined fairly well.

The positive now is social media which has emerged as the biggest source of news for the young people who have emerged as the bulk of those opposing Mr. Museveni

7. The infectious Bobi Wine personality.

Bobi is naturally an infectious descendant of Adam. He is naturally creative, his background inspires many, and he is courageously formidable, very humble at personal level and knows how to turn his weakness into opportunities.

When he first spoke politics, i know a person who dismissed him as a muyaye who is on a tour venture but would soon get back to his useless music life. Today that very person is *Bobi’s* most ardent supporters. Even how he has kept a stable family life when each of his colleagues and struggling is a clear sign of leadership trait.

Even recently with NTV’s *Patrick Kamara*’s unfair question about fiscal policy, all his detractors thought they had got an opportunity to finish him and throw him into the political dustbin.

To everyone’s surprise he walked into the music studio and recorded a song ” fiscal policy” which shut the mouth of the hypothetical elites to date. With Bobi, if you throw stones to hit him, he instead uses them to build a wall fence, if you throw eggs at him, he makes an omelet and you will enjoy it, if you throw lemon at him, he will make lemon juice and serves you.

That is the power of the of the infections we are dealing with who is giving the sabalwanyi sleepless nights.

8. The need for the corrupt to retain their wealth.

Corrupt people are inherently bad apples in any government. They can really be vicious against a regime competitor. But this show of brute, viciousness and mercilessness is not because they love that leader very much. After stealing, they will fear to lose.

This fear will make them not have loyalty towards a regime but their loyalty will only be towards their wealth.

Interestingly am seeing this happening already. Opposition activities are now openly being funded by wealthy men in town. I remember there were times in this very country when even a hotel would never allow opposition politicians to hold a meeting in their premises. If this is not a signal, then what is it?

In conclusion, the new #BobiWine is a creature of the behaviors of those manning the state, their brute approach to a civic opponents is creating resentment. Even those who would ordinarily be their sympathizers are resenting their horrifying arrogance and brute actions. Society cannot sympathise with the arrogant.

The behavior of the state is not only hardening defiant behavior in Bobi wine but creating *Bobisim* in many people. The new Bobi who has been created by this intransigent state behavior is not one who will easily be cowed, intimidated, forced or coerced into submission.

The new Bobi can only be negotiated with respectfully. They have created a creature, they have laid the bed, I only advise them to lay on it.

*The write is a Public Policy Commentator and Activist from Tororo municipality